I came away from yet another conference on the impact of climate change on agriculture and horticulture with the feeling that, while I had believed there was nothing more to report on such fears, an additional, more immediate dimension has now reared its head.

Put simply, at the same time that the world is changing and affecting food production, how cheap will fruit and vegetables remain?

So far, compared with other basic foods, they have not been in the limelight. But behind the scenes, along with the climate, the issues of rising fuel costs, labour shortages and price pressure from supermarkets are becoming more than just a talking point.

Understandably, the National Farmers’ Union and its supporters have been particularly vociferous, although old habits die hard. I smiled to myself during the presentations, when the comment was made that at the height of the UK season, it was unnecessary to import fruit from the US. I recall the same protest at the union’s agm back in 1963...

On a more serious note, however, based on current economics, there is a conundrum. Our growers are being encouraged to grow more, with the object of keeping prices down. But rising costs and land shortages are already making it doubly difficult to square the circle.

Another factor is that if demand for biofuels continues, many growers, as has been the experience in the US, will switch simply because it is more profitable and incurs less risk.

In either case, the concept of being able to tap into an untouched seam of nature’s bounty through providing greater volumes of local produce may not be as simple as it first appears.

Longer term, the effect of the impact of rising temperatures is even more intriguing, particularly if the opinion that northern Europe will not face the same problems as the rest of the world and will become a bread (and fruit) basket for less fortunate regions comes to fruition.

This could have even more startling consequences. Could the time be reached, for example, when English apple growers will export to meet the demands of southern France? A complete reversal from the times when Golden Delicious grown on the edge of the Mediterranean was seen as the bane of our Cox producers!

Perhaps we are even seeing the first indications of the formation of a new seasonal calendar, with English vegetable growers already moving up from East Anglia to Scotland. The scale may be infinitesimal, but Marks & Spencer revealed at the conference that it has already been selling British sweet potatoes, mangetout and melons.

Whatever the future holds, however, the rules of supply and demand will still hold firm. Whatever choice of crops growers make, regardless of the technology available, if they still cannot make sufficient profit to maintain their livelihood and invest in the future, they will simply continue to shrink in numbers and even disappear.

It is hard to imagine that fruit and vegetables could become luxury items. But when the effect of climate change is really felt, that just might be the case.

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