The dawn of the new year has inevitably brought its usual rash of predictions, which have probably been more closely studied than usual due to the economic climate. Most appear to reflect the low temperatures sweeping the country, with the only difference being the general feeling that bleak trading conditions will extend throughout the year and even longer.

While I do not have a crystal ball, I have a feeling that the fresh produce industry as a whole will probably fare far better than the pessimistic forecasts that surround it.

First and foremost, the category represents a broad range of basic foodstuffs and, if pennies are tight, the first concern is to feed the family. The fact that fruit and vegetables still occupy the high ground at the front of the supermarket and are regarded as the flagship to attract customers is all to the sector’s benefit.

The added public interest in local food has been reflected by the expansion of farmers’ markets and farm shops, often providing very high-quality lines. To some extent, these have filled the vacuum left on the high street with the demise of so many butchers, bakers and candlestick makers - not to forget greengrocers, or fruiterers as they have always liked to be known. So they now offer not just an alternative but should also be well placed in terms of value, being near the source of production as well as having far fewer marketing costs.

So what I think we will also see, beyond the prevailing bargain- basement approach at retail level, is consumers being encouraged to rediscover some of the simpler and cheaper culinary pleasures associated with the pre-war years, when the recovery of the economy was paramount.

What may be needed is several hundred Jamie Olivers - or equivalents - to re-educate the public beyond the joys of fillet steak, prawn cocktails and even added-value, over-packaged fresh produce.

It is not so much that there will be shortages in the literal sense, although the other question is whether imports will continue to come in at the same level they have over the last decade. I somehow can’t see us slipping back to the time when bananas were considered a luxury, or everyone was extolled to ‘Dig for Victory’.

Tastes have, of course, changed since then, and fruit in particular is no longer a luxury. In fact, viewing the government’s latest campaigns, which sprang from the original 5 A DAY initiative, it is now being more publicly recognised as a necessity and, along with salads and vegetables, as part of the strategy for a healthier nation.

So far, so good, you might say. However, the crux is whether the UK, as long as present conditions continue, can remain one of the world’s most significant produce importers. And second, if the infrastructure of the industry, including its packing and distribution services supporting the retail trade, is financially robust enough to withstand the financial strain when margins are already tight. What is often overlooked is that it is still a commodity market which, like the FTSE, is noted for its swings and roundabouts.

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