Stephen Robertson

Stephen Robertson

Poor weather and low yields last year have caused fresh food inflation to increase to 1.2 per cent in April, from 0.5 per cent in March.

Food price inflation is expected to remain relatively stable barring any shocks in supply and commodity prices in the coming months, although tough comparisons with last year’s sharp fall in food inflation will continue to add to inflationary pressure over the next few months.

On a month-on-month basis, prices increased 0.3 per cent after rising just 0.1 per cent in March.

Overall food inflation rose to two per cent from 1.2 per cent in March, while non-food inflation rose to two per cent.

The increase in food inflation from last month is likely to be the result of sharp falls in inflation this time last year and a restriction in supply, as harvests were late and vegetable yields poor as a result of the weather in the UK.

However, food inflation still remains lower than the 12-month rolling average of 3.1 per cent and barring any supply shocks, food inflation is to remain relatively stable throughout 2010.

Stephen Robertson, British Retail Consortium director general, said: “Rising costs edged overall shop price inflation up, but it's still below the rates seen in December and January.

"With commodity prices, including oil and cocoa, going up, food prices were almost bound to rise when compared with last month's three-year low.

“Oil, which is up 70 per cent over the year, also influenced some non-food prices as manufacturing and transport costs went up. VAT is also higher than a year ago.

"But the main effects of rising costs and the weak pound have now been felt. With demand still weak, shop prices should be more stable in future months, as long as there are no more big shocks."