Global strategists predict changing trade dynamics, health concerns and innovation to influence agriculture in the next five years
Import tariffs, anti-obesity medications, autonomous machinery and AI are some of the most impactful trends set to affect Australia’s food and agriculture industries over the next five years, according to Rabobank analysis, presenting the fresh produce industry with challenges and opportunities.
Changing trade dynamics due to potential tariffs and government policies is set to be one of the most influential factors on the agriculture industry and global trade said RaboResearch Australia and New Zealand general manager Stefan Vogel. Vogel noted the potential for incoming US import tariffs was a major concern for exporters dealing with the US.
“Companies around the globe that are exporting to the US may need to consider strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including options like lowering prices to maintain competitiveness in the US market or investing in local production facilities in the US to avoid tariffs altogether,” he said. “However, the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and trade policies makes it challenging for companies to make long-term business decisions. On the positive side though, a strong US dollar might mitigate some of the tariff impacts.”
Additionally, Vogel said the use of anti-obesity medications (AOMs) was having a discernible impact on the food industry in the US and other countries – particularly in Europe and Asia – might follow suit.
He said studies show users of AOMs often cut down their consumption of calorie-dense and processed foods while their grocery spend on fresh produce rises.
At the farm level, Vogel said autonomous machinery – such as driverless helicopters and large drones for crop spraying – were becoming more widespread, aided by AI.
“Labour-intense sectors like fresh produce are already using these technologies and are expected to further adopt them for tasks that can reduce manual labour like spraying, planting, harvesting, processing and packaging.”
The on-farm usage of biologicals is also expected to rise in the five years ahead. The natural products can enhance plant growth and health by improving nutrient uptake, pest resistance and soil health. Vogel said the usage is expected to become more readily accepted in traditional farming and to be used in conjunction with other conventional farm inputs to enhance their effectiveness.
“For example, biologicals are being used alongside nitrogen fertiliser to help take up nitrogen out of the soil and fix it to the plant,” he said.
Rabobank also highlighted the growing popularity of smaller, snack-sized fruit and vegetables (such as berries and cocktail tomatoes) and those with enhanced convenience qualities, including pre-cut vegetables and easy-peel fruit; the increasing use of sustainable packaging, such as recycled-moulded fibre; and the expected increase in climate risk and mitigation in companies’ strategic and operational plans, including in diversified sourcing and business growth.
