As most UK importers will be all too aware, a prolonged cold snap in the first three months of 2005 had a negative effect on stone fruit and other crops in western Europe and northern Africa.
The main producing regions in Europe’s largest stone fruit source countries, Italy, Spain and France, came out of the depths of winter with plentiful blossom, but, by the beginning of May, it had become clear that a significant volume of small fruitlets on trees around the continent have not developed as desired, and are therefore likely to drop. Thinning programmes had already been put in place, but the unpredictable evolution of the season made early forecasting at this year’s Europech conference in Perpignan a less than exact science.
Overall volume is expected at this stage to fall in line with the five-year average at around 2.772 million tonnes, just two per cent below last year’s crop. But, industry insiders are already being forced to hedge their bets a little, as it is as yet unclear whether the delay that should affect early-season varieties most, could eventually kick-off a concertina-effect, which will see an overlap of varieties and sources rather than the sequenced arrival of fruit to suit programmes throughout the continent.
Up to this point in the season, availability has been severely restricted. As much as 90 per cent of extra-early peach and nectarine production in the Spanish area around Seville was destroyed, as temperatures dropped as low as -8°C, while the crop in Valencia was also badly affected. Extremadura, Catalonia and Aragon, which produce later varieties, and the traditional varieties in Murcia have however been largely unaffected, as vegetation was still dormant when cold struck.
Despite the early problems, if the Spanish campaign escapes any further mishaps, the country’s crop is still forecast to climb by 25 per cent or more on last year’s frost-struck volume.
“Despite a late start ... the overall season is looking like shaping up well,” says Penny Pidd at Redbridge Worldfresh. “Whilst a high percentage of the early varieties have been lost because of the bad weather, the mid-season Spanish varieties will have benefited from the abundant chill hours and the excellent fruit set, which has resulted in heavy thinning.
“It is clear that volumes will pick up especially during June when Spanish regions such as Badajoz and Lerida start to harvest, thus increasing overall availability.
“Early season apricots from Spain will be notable by their absence due to the frost in Valencia. But the campaign is forecast to catch up with a crop eight per cent up on last year.”
Early season Spanish fruit is beginning to arrive on the market, according to John Pagliero, director of Global Stone Fruits Limited. He says: “The fruit is very small and it’s not of the right conditions for the supermarkets. It’s got good colour, but doesn’t eat. However, it’s typical early season fruit and things should improve.”
He says he remains quietly optimistic about the season: “Given a normal season, things should improve, but that is in a normal season. However, they do have the quantities in Spain and one must assume things will be ok.”
However, he acknowledges conditions can change rapidly. “The fruit you are looking to sell in two weeks time is still on the trees, so what happens if you get hailstorms, then you’ve got a problem.”
In Italy, which follows Spain into the market, peach and nectarine production is forecast to decline by about 10 per cent on last season’s bumper crop. This is due largely to a five per cent reduction in acreage in northern growing areas that have suffered from poor returns in recent seasons, and this has combined with the expected effects of alternate bearing to reduce expectations.
The sector in northern Italy lurched into economic crisis last season, as prices in its primary market Germany fell to unprecedented levels. Class I nectarines struggled to reach the €1 a kilo price ticket, and producers were left to pick the bones out of a dismal net return of €0.15-0.3 a kilo, which barely covered the cost of production. Last year’s massive crop - the largest for 10 years - and a difficult domestic market slowed the Italian machine, and encouraged many growers to either grub a proportion of their orchards or pull out of the game altogether.
Volumes may fall in 2005, but Italy is still responsible for more than 50 per cent of the entire European crop, and with an estimated 1.4mt of peaches and nectarines this year, the UK market is unlikely to have any problem securing supply, Pidd says: “Italy is due to have a good harvest this year - it may be a few days later than last year, again due to the cold winter weather, but with the Spanish crop running late we will see continuity of supplies.
“The first Italian volumes will also start to come through during June, making late June and early July an ideal time to drive sales forward with promotional offers.”
Pagliero says the Italian picture is looking healthy for the season: “They haven’t had the early frost problems Spain has had, so Italy looks good. They’ve got reasonable quantities.”
Production in France appears to be a particular victim to fruit drop. This is a factor particularly in the Rhône Valley where peach and nectarine volumes are forecast to fall by about 17 per cent, in part due also to a 10 per cent decline in acreage.
Output in the Provence Alpes Cote d’Azur region is likely to be about two per cent down on last year. Area under production in Languedoc Roussillon is unchanged but the forecast is for an increase of some 13 per cent in volume. At Europech, the forecast was for a crop of the same order as in 2004 - weighing in at slightly below 400,000t.
The last three seasons have brought wildly fluctuating fortunes for French producers and consequently, there appears to be a two-speed evolutionary process unraveling. While the Rhône Valley production area diminishes at a rate of 10 per cent a year, other regions have been luckier and maintained their capacity. As with the other major producing countries, Europech analysts suggested that it will be June before anything approaching definitive volume figures can be pinned to the season.
Summer-fruit expert at the Roussillon Chamber of Agriculture, Eric Hostalnou says: “The French crop should be similar to 2004, but we have encountered delays during production. The most notable evolution in the French orchards, however, is that production is shifting increasingly towards southern areas like Crau and Roussillon and this may eventually force operators to modify their stone-fruit calendar.
“Competition wise, both France and Spain are back to their normal potential, so the Spanish fruit will have a bigger presence on French shelves and we might have cause to worry a little about delays in the Northern Lerida area, that might lead to overlaps with local French production during the very sensitive July-August period.”
Italy, says Hostalnou, is not seen as a real competitor by the French, as its fruit is marketed during a high-supply period in France. “In a global context, France is almost obliged to export at least 20 per cent of its production to get balance and prevent national market congestion,” he says. “Sadly, French exporters are more and more reluctant to sell on the UK market as the price level is no longer connected with the distributors’ rightful quality demands. More generally the trend is to stop export to some destinations rather than selling for next to nothing.”
Greece is a major producer of cling-stone peaches, which mainly go to the industrial sector. It is the European market leader in that sub-category, but its fresh production is expected to amount to about 266,000t of peaches and 106,000t of nectarines in 2005. Production generally is on an upward spiral, although nectarine volumes are relatively static, which does not fit in with the UK consumer profile.
After a disastrous year in 2003, when 90 per cent of the Greek peach crop was destroyed, producers have been in recovery mode. The signs this year are that the recovery is now nearing completion.
France is making up for declines in peach and nectarine plantings with increased acreage of apricots. The effects of the frosts in the flowering period have taken their toll and the forecast is for a crop 10 per cent down on last season at 147,900t.
According to Europech, only France has a strong, long-term outlook on apricots, pointing to a stable structure and the country’s tendency to introduce new varieties that both suit the consumer and address the hot points in the existing supply calendar.
Hostalnou says : “Apricots remain a trump card for French summer fruit. The crop should be average this year as the market is buoyant. France might take advantage of the very low expected crop in Valencia. The fruit tree price is not exceptionally high and we expect good output of high class fruit and therefore hopefully, a better value price for growers.
“The market should be well balanced though we should be wary of the weather in the forthcoming weeks, as it might impact on the traditional sequence of varieties coming to market (orange red, then Roussillon red and Bergeron).”
Italian production was untouched by frosts but production is down by about eight per cent to 195,000t. Varieties introduced during the 1990s have largely proved incapable of adapting to the demands of the production climate or the international markets.
Europech reports that Spain too has failed to advance in terms of production techniques or varietal mix in the last few years. Spanish production of apricots is expected to end up around the same level as last year’s crop, although early forecasts have it slightly higher, at around 111,000t.
Further down the volume scale, Greek apricot production is likely to be about 38 per cent down on last season at 40,000t. The inability to enhance or replace the Bébéco variety, which makes up the vast majority of volume, and the attraction to producers of the expanding and often more lucrative table grape market, have served to limit the competitiveness of the Greek apricot industry.
Pidd says that the stone-fruit category faces strong competition from other fruit categories, such as soft fruit and melons. “Strong promotional offers can have an impact on demand for stone fruit. The weather also plays an important role in the success of stone fruit sales as peach and nectarine in particular are perceived as a summer fruit. A poor summer can have a detrimental affect on sales where as warm weather drives consumer demand,” she says.
“Now that the danger period for weather having a detrimental effect on the crop has passed, the main threat to successful sales will come from strong retail promotions on other fruit products. Backed by healthy eating campaigns it is hoped that the industry can overcome this and encourage additional purchases of fruit rather than the consumer having to face an either/or decision.”
One purchasing decision the consumer cannot be expected to forsake of course, is what type of stone fruit to put in their baskets. There has been a noticeable change in consumption dynamics in the sector in the last few years, Pidd adds: “During the last 12 months we have seen an increase in sales of apricots and cherries. Nectarine sales continue to outstrip peaches - the UK consumer does not peel fruit unlike our European counterparts so consequently the furry skin of a peach is never as appealing as a smooth hairless nectarine. Until the industry develops a hairless peach this will continue to be the case.”
Overall, the key to a successful stone fruit season is weather, says Pagliero. “That’s the biggest single influencing factor. Both the weather at source and the weather at the point of consumption. When you get a good summer, consumers are out looking for peaches and nectarines where the juice runs down your arm.”
PROTECTED NECTARINES
CSO (Centro Servizi Ortofrutticoli) was at Macfrut 2005 last week to promote, amongst other lines, PGI (Protected Geographical Indication) peaches and nectarines from the Romagna region of Italy.
While various peaches have been nominated, Romagna’s nectarines are the only ones to have been given protected status, according to CSO marketing representative Alessandra Ravaioli.
“CSO represents 11 associates which are the most important growers of peaches and nectarines in the region,” says Ravaioli.
The associates are both co-operatives and private companies in specific areas of Romagna. They are all accredited to CSO’s standards to ensure regional traceability and are already selling to Italy’s major supermarkets and smaller chains.
While regional origin is very important to Italian consumers, British supermarkets are not so keen to recognise the regional brands, Ravaioli says.
“The associates already sell produce in the UK but it is not registered under CSO because it is very expensive to do this,” she claims.
“It is important to have good relationships with importers who know what to do to get the product into the supermarkets because you cannot get direct contact with the supermarket buyers.”
Ravaioli said CSO is hoping that it will be able to strengthen the established relationships between the associates and British importers and roll out its promotional campaign in the UK.
“Last year they produced 3,300t of fruit and are hoping to double that this year and begin to export, particularly to the UK, which appreciates a very high quality product.”
Ravailoli listed the assurance of a high brix level across the crops, as one of Romagna’s characteristics.
She says: “A minimum of 9.5 is guaranteed until June 30 and 11.5 from July 1 to the end of the harvest.”
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