English apple crop forecasts are being revised downwards just a month into the season.
According to Adrian Barlow, chief executive of English Apples & Pears, several varieties are running some 20 per cent below initial estimates. The reasons for the revision are several.
Barlow said: “The weather in south-east England has been very dry since mid-July, but it has been particularly dry in north Kent and east Kent in August and September. Although this has meant that picking has been very efficient, without delays and potential detrimental effects to the quality caused by picking wet fruit, it also means that in terms of sizing, fruit is not bulking up.”
The traditional June drop saw fruit falling from trees later into the summer this year.
However, Barlow also attributes the downward change to other reasons. “The crop has been very showy and that has misled growers as to the volumes present on their trees; there appeared to be much more fruit than there actually was. So we are now revising crop forecasts downwards.”
Not everyone agrees entirely. One marketer told freshinfo: “I think there has probably been some slightly ambitious forecasting on the part of growers. I don’t think there will be much less fruit, just a slight tinkering on initial predictions, and I believe we will still have a good crop.”
Final figures will not be available until next month, but whereas Cox was forecast to be five to 10 per cent up in volume on 2008, it is now being revised downward five to 10 per cent. The pattern is very similar on Gala; instead of a 16 per cent increase on last season, output is forecast to reach 30,000 tonnes, some eight to nine per cent up on last season. Other autumn dessert varieties such as Egremont Russet and Spartan are also expected to deliver slightly smaller crops.
However, Barlow is confident that these forecast reduced volumes will not affect the marketplace this season. He said: “We should have a Cox crop that more accurately matches consumer demand. There is still good demand for Cox, but every year it is from a slightly smaller proportion of the population.”
While it is still a little early to tell for Braeburn, with the harvest a few weeks away, the variety is expected to yield a record crop this season and if there is significant rainfall in Kent, then the crop could bulk up further.
The group of new varieties that includes Cameo, Jazz, Kanzi and Rubens is also likely to fall slightly from the forecast to 5,000t, compared to the previous calculation on August 1 of 7,000t.
Barlow also said that English growers now had a good opportunity to meet market demand, given a shortage of Gala in poly-bagging sizes on the continent.
However, French producers have been keen to insist that they have enough fruit in the required size profile (see p5, FPJ, September 11).
One importer who has just returned from France told freshinfo that he believes this is not the case. He said: “Fruit is definitely up a size on last year. There might be enough in poly-bagging sizes, but the amount is less than last year. The question is, are they under pressure to sell?”
The English apple industry is also calling on the whole supply chain, and not just multiple retailers, to help ensure satisfactory returns for growers this season. Barlow said: “We have the potential to double our existing crop, but that will not happen if returns are not adequate. Last year they were not, and we understand why, but the effect of this is to reduce investment and put a brake on the UK industry.”
There is also growing disquiet about the late presence of southern hemisphere Braeburn in the UK marketplace. Barlow said: “These volumes will disrupt the marketing of European Braeburn.”
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