There is no lack of supply, say sources, who point to higher production in Turkey and Iran, and a much bigger overall crop worldwide
Talk of a supposed shortage of pistachios on the international market may be nothing more than marketing hype aimed at boosting sales of premium chocolate bars in the run-up to Easter, Fruitnet has learned.
A report published last week in the Financial Times suggested that the “meteoric” commercial success of so-called Dubai chocolate – bars with a green and distinctive filling made from pistachio cream and shredded pastry – had triggered such a big surge in demand for pistachios that it had causes a “supply crunch” at a time when global availability was already lower than usual.
But talk of an all-out shortage seems wide of the mark, despite that unexpected strong demand.
“It’s just a red herring,” said UK-based nuts and dried fruit expert and former buyer Darren Cheshire. “There is a general lack of supply from this harvest that became apparent at the same time as the hype around the Dubai chocolate bar, [but] there is no causality between them.”
According to figures from the International Nut & Dried Fruit Council, world production of in-shell pistachios is expected to be 1.16mn tonnes in 2024/25 – the highest volume for at least a decade, and well above the ten-year average of just under 750,000 tonnes.
Total supply out of California might be among the lowest in recent years at around 500,000 tonnes, but that’s normal given the product’s alternate bearing cycle, where a full crop is always followed the next year by an ‘off year’.
Supply out of Turkey and Iran, the world’s two other major suppliers, are forecast up on initial estimates and considerably higher than in 2023/24.
“All in all, there is continuous strong demand for pistachios across all markets, underlining the positive momentum for long-term growth,” a recent market report stated earlier this year in relation to US supply.
In Turkey, the Dubai chocolate phenomenon seems to have driven an unexpected increase in domestic demand. But the country’s record production of 465,000 tonnes this season is far higher than the 275,000 tonnes registered in 2023/24.
Iran, meanwhile, has produced around 22 per cent more pistachios this year at approximately 230,000 tonnes. And although hot conditions reduced the percentage of marketable product, the country’s exports to late January were up 80 per cent on the previous campaign to 102,000 tonnes.
Vittoria Calcagni is head of public affairs at leading Italian dried fruit and nut company Besana. She agrees that the impact of Dubai chocolate has been overstated.
“If you look at the global data, thanks to Turkey and Iran, the total volume is higher than that of the year 2023/24,” she explains.
“In general, there is a great demand for pistachios thanks to the various promotional campaigns and the use as a special product to enrich many industrial products.
“This product trend has already been going on for a few years and this promotion from Dubai has certainly helped. Prices have risen and the availability of shelled product is certainly down.”
If nothing else, the recent publicity underlines the potential of social media to influence demand. The bars were originally launched in 2021 by Emirati chocolatier Fix, but the success of this TikTok video first aired in 2023 has brought them worldwide attention and inspired a number of other marketers to launch similar products.
