Lower than expected volumes have growers “reaching ahead” to supply additional fruit
At the halfway point of the Mexican avocado season, industry sources are saying that volumes out of Michoacan have been lighter than originally expected. This is also reflected in the US market where prices have been averaging well over US$70 per carton (FOB Texas) for count 48 for much of January. A year earlier, prices averaged closer to US$40.
“Growers are reaching ahead by as much as a month to find additional fruit,” notes a sales manager for a US-based importer. “If this keeps up, it could cause the Mexican season to wind down earlier than usual.”
An earlier end to the Mexican season may work well for the California avocado industry, which is anticipating one of its largest-volume seasons in years – currently estimated at 170,000 tonnes.
“Mexico will likely hold back on exporting fruit to the US to allow supply channels to clear out somewhat during the period after the Super Bowl,” the importer says. “If that turns out to be the case, it will only keep FOB prices that much higher.”
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