The US government’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 70 per cent chance weather phenomenon El Niño will return before the end of 2014, for the first time in five years.
According to the centre’s latest report released 5 June, El Niño is likely to be of moderate strength, potentially affecting trade flows, disrupting shipping patterns and raising freight costs.
Global shipping company Maersk Line’s Ole Schack Peterson told Reuters that volumes of bananas from Ecuador and Central America could be severely affected by El Niño.
“If there is less volume of bananas moving from a combination of Ecuador and Colombia, then the world will simply not be able to make up for those banana volumes,” Petersen told Reuters, adding that if Maersk is impacted negatively, the company would change its deployment of fleets in South America.
El Niño could also affect rice trade in South East Asia, delay the start of India’s monsoon season and trigger drought in Australia.
The Climate Prediction Centre releases an updated report on a monthly basis; the next report to be released 10 July 2014.
