Despite initial forecasts, mid-season packouts have 2024/25 crop at 134.6mn cartons – just under 2023/24’s second largest in history which had growers barely breaking even
When the Washington apple industry issued its 2024/25 pre-season production forecast in August predicting a crop of just over 124mn cartons (18kg), it was a relief to growers.
While not a small crop, it was set to be 9 per cent lower than the 136m cartons shipped during 2023/24 – the second largest in industry history which saw FOB prices hover at or below the breakeven level for most varieties through the entire shipping season.
However, at the mid-point of the 2024/25 season, packouts from storage indicate that the crop may end up very close to last season’s total at just under 134.6mn cartons after all, demonstrating that crop estimating remains an inexact science.
“The volume is higher than we originally thought,” admitted Marc Pflugrath of CMI Orchards. “And although the market could be better, we’re managing to return something to the grower.”
In fact, according to veteran apple marketer Randy Eckert of River Valley Fruit, the deal is improved over last year, depending on the variety.
“However, the industry is trying to dig out of a huge (economic) hole from losses incurred over the last two seasons,” he added.
The 2023/24 season affected most varieties throughout the region. Even Honeycrisp – the industry’s undisputed star over the last two decades – saw Fob’s fall to unheard of lows thanks to a bumper crop for the variety. The steadily escalating cost of production for apples compounded these issues, affecting grower returns further. Inputs for labour, grading, food safety, irrigation, fertiliser and other factors have become drastically inflated in recent years. That fact has forced an increasing consolidation of the state’s production under a few large sales desks that command a significant market share on the buying side.
Exports remain an important part of the Washington industry’s distribution mix and while shipments to key markets have been steady this season, volume is down versus last year.
“Demand has been generally good to date but could be better,” said Eckert. “India has been pulling fruit at a decent level, as has Taiwan.”
Pflugrath said movement was quite good ahead of Lunar New Year but has been a little quieter since.
“We’re expecting things to pick up soon once the supply channels clear up,” he said. “It’s nice to see Indonesia starting to import again now that the new government quotas (for apples) have been issued.”
What should help fruit movement to all markets are reports that the current crop continues to show strong quality from storage with a good mix of sizes to offer.
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