With production up this year and exports set to rise, the country’s dependence on US as a market leaves it vulnerable
President Trump’s tariff policy has left the Mexican avocado business under a dark cloud, with almost US$3bn in annual sales potentially at stake.
Although the US administration appears to have allowed fruit and vegetables to be exempt from any duty payments under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the ability of Mexico’s exporters to ship avocados to the US without incurring a tariff charge depends on their ability as individual companies to comply with that agreement’s terms.
In practice, this means they must meet strict rules that cover areas like harvesting and food safety in order to avoid a 12 per cent charge. For many, that additional cost will encourage them to explore alternatives.
“Our plan is to open new markets,” Eleazar Oceguera, director of the Association of Producers and Exporters of Avocados in Jalisco, told Al Jazeera. “If there’s any problem, we want an alternative. We can’t concentrate on just one market anymore.”
Mexico is the largest fresh produce exporter to the US by volume, and responsible for around 80 per cent of its non-domestic avocado supply.
In 2023, it provided almost two-thirds of its imported vegetables and nearly half its imported fruit and nuts.
Volume increase
Mexico’s avocado production is expected to reach 2.75mn tonnes this year, a 3 per cent increase compared with an estimated 2.67mn tonnes in 2024.
According to a new USDA report, that increase is the result of favourable growing conditions, improved agricultural practices, and strong export demand.
Exports meanwhile are forecast at 1.34mn tonnes in 2025, up 5 per cent year on year, but that depends hugely on the level of demand in the US and the impact of Trump’s tariff.
In 2024, estimated exports were 1.28mn tonnes, down 9 per cent on the 2023 figure, primarily due to increased logistical costs and a smaller harvest.
Exports to the US were 1.07mn tonnes last year, 5 per cent lower than the previous year.
However, planted area for avocados has stayed more or less the same for the past two years at 256,500ha, amid reports of increased enforcement of land use regulations and a new anti-deforestation certification programme in the state of Michoacán.
