Kevin Moffitt, former CEO of Pear Bureau Northwest, tells Fruitnet exporters in the US will lose out as Canada and Mexico imposes retaliatory tariffs
The 25 per cent duties on imports from Mexico and Canada could have a far-reaching impact on United States agriculture. According to the USDA, those two countries have been the largest suppliers of agricultural products to the US for decades. Last year, Mexico supplied around 23 per cent of those imports to the US, with Canadian imports around 19 per cent.
I have seen other statistics that report that Mexico supplies over 60 per cent of US vegetable imports and nearly half of its fruit imports. The US imported US$19.7bn in agricultural goods from Mexico in 2023. So, fruit and veg prices could be impacted very quickly, making popular imported berries and avocados from Mexico more expensive to American consumers for example.
An immediate concern to many US agricultural exporters would be countervailing tariffs levied on our products. For example, Mexico is the largest export market for fresh US pears, and Canada number two.
I would estimate that these two countries have imported 90 per cent of the fresh pears shipped outside of the US this season to date. So a heavy counter-duty on pears from Mexico and or Canada would be concerning to the industry.
Apple shipments to both countries are important as well, so a retaliatory duty on fresh apples could force more into the domestic market, potentially lowering prices. This could negatively impact sales of pears in domestic retail markets.
Other issues are longer term. Any increase in oil prices, for example, could increase transportation costs. In addition, curtailed exports from Mexico and Canada could impact both country’s GDP. Any increases in the US dollar against the Mexican peso or Canadian dollar can make their exports cheaper, and it will also make US goods more expensive in those markets, further disrupting their economies.
Beyond countervailing duties, markets could look to other suppliers to replace disrupted trade with the US. For example, Mexico is increasing trade ties with the EU – including dropping duties on EU imports of cheese, pork, chocolate and wine.
So, there are a lot of short- and long-term concerns and impacts. These could ripple through many economies, disrupting trade, and hurting farmers as well as consumers.
