Persistent high heat throughout July has industry expecting 10-15 per cent lower volumes than CTGA estimate of 94.4mn cartons, but heavier than normal late-season varieties could push number closer to 90mn
Coping with one of the hottest summers in the history of the San Joaquin Valley, the 2024 table grape season entered its final weeks of picking in late October. The heat was so unrelenting during July – exceeding 38ºC for 24 days during the month and topping out at 43ºC for two days at mid-month – that growers feared they would lose a significant percentage of their crop from sunburn, preventing red varieties from gaining sufficient colour. While some of these concerns did materialise, it now appears that the 2024 deal will end on a positive note.
“The season is beginning to wind down with maybe another five weeks of picking left, depending on who you talk to,” noted John Pandol of Pandol Bros. at the recent International Fresh Produce Association convention in Atlanta. “The industry is about 70 per cent picked and 65 per cent shipped at this point, which is where we should be at this point in the season. And sales velocity has been quite acceptable, which has helped keep prices high enough for growers to make some money this year.”
According to a USDA report, table grape inventories as of mid-October were running significantly higher and closer to historical norms than a year ago due to tropical storm Hilary, which struck the San Joaquin Valley in August 2023, destroying as much as 25mn cartons (8.6 kg) worth of fruit. This year storage stocks of the primary late-season green variety, Autumn King, totalled 2.5mn cartons compared to only 1.8mn cartons for the same date in 2023, while Scarlet Royals – still one of the leading late season reds – totalled 1.5 m cartons compared to only 500,000 a year earlier. As for black varieties, just 252,000 cartons of black Autumn Royals remained on hand as acreage continues to shrink in light of consumer’s shifting preferences towards red and green varieties. Overall, the USDA reported 10.97mn cartons grapes for all varieties as of mid-October versus just 7.4mn cartons last year.
The California Table Grape Commission’s pre-season production estimate pegged the 2024 crop at 94.4m cartons but with the brutal summer heat knocking back per-acre yields, much of the industry expected season totals to fall by 10-15 per cent. That may not be the case, however.
“Volume for late varieties is turning out to be heavier than expected,” said Pandol. “The final numbers may end up in the low 90mn cartons, which would be fairly close to the pre-season estimates.”
Other opinions heard at the IFPA show differed somewhat.
“The deal this year looks to be below 90mn cartons – maybe in the high 80s,” said Ralph Briseno, director of California operations for CMI Orchards. “The season is already in its final stages. A lot of growers are going to finish by the end of October, while some of the larger guys may last for a few weeks into November.”
Briseno has been pleased with the overall quality of California table grapes this year, however.
“Export arrivals in Asia have been consistently good to date, which is something we didn’t necessarily expect earlier in the season.”
Read the full version of this article in the upcoming November edition Asiafruit Magazine. Subscribe for your copy HERE.
