Total EU, non-EU Mediterranean and US volumes are all expected to drop in 2024/25
The World Citrus Organisation (WCO) has released its annual Northern Hemisphere citrus forecast for the upcoming citrus season of 2024/25, predicting a year-on-year fall in overall volume.
The forecast is based on data from Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, the US and, for the first time, Portugal.
Citrus production is estimated at just under 27.3mn tonnes, representing an 8.73 per cent decrease on the previous season, while standing 5.88 per cent lower than the average of the last four campaigns.
Exports are expected to follow a similar trend at 8.38mn tonnes, down by 8.94 per cent from 2023/24 and 9.78 per cent from the four-year average.
“The market insights we received indicate a decrease from last year’s high volumes,” said Philippe Binard, WCO secretary general. ”This is mainly driven by Turkey returning to regular production levels after last season’s record figures as well as Egypt’s expected decrease.
“Climatic issues, such as late frost, drought, heat waves, or new pests and diseases are constant threats to the quality, colouring, or harvest date for the production,” Binard noted.
”The market will still be impacted by geopolitical instability while consumer demand is under pressure due to limitation of purchasing power and inflation.”
Data by country
The WCO revealed that Spain’s citrus production, at 6.18mn tonnes, is set to fall 3.3 per cent on the previous seasons, led by a 21.01 per cent decrease in lemons from last year’s record year.
The dramatic weather events in Spain are ”not expected to have a significant impact on the overall supply”, which remains as predicted, the organisation noted.
Italy’s volumes are down by 12.32 per cent at 2.77mn tonnes, with a 17.51 per cent decline in oranges, while Greece remains stable at 1.09mn tonnes.
In the other Mediterranean countries, Turkey is forecast to decrease its production by 17.57 per cent to 4.95mn tonnes after last season’s record figures.
Egypt at 4.35mn tonnes is down by 19.55 per cent from 2023/24, while Morocco’s production is expected to grow 11.97 per cent to 2.14mn tonnes.
Israel’s production is also estimated to recover to 560,000 tonnes, up 18.5 per cent.
Portugal, which contributed to the WCO forecast for the first time, estimates a 3.37 per cent decrease in the upcoming season, or 380,000 tonnes in total).
Production in the US is expected to shrink to 4.55mn tonnes, down 4.28 per cent, continuing to decrease compared with the average of the previous seasons (down 11.52 per cent).
“WCO is also setting some trends for the expected utilisation of citrus for the upcoming season,” Binard outlined.
”The Northern Hemisphere citrus exports will decrease by 8.94 per cent compared to last season to 8.38mn tonnes, while processing will decline to 5.16mn tonnes (down 4.15 per cent), leaving 13.76mn tonnes for domestic sales (down 10.21 per cent).”
The WCO will release the 2025 production and export forecast for the Southern Hemisphere in April.
