Volumes are expected to increase 5.5 per cent across the key apple-growing nations, with pear numbers set to fall 3.3 per cent
The World Apple and Pear Association (Wapa) held its annual meeting at Fruit Logistica in Berlin, releasing its Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast for the upcoming season.
According to the forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa, apple production is set to grow by 5.5 per cent compared to 2024, while the pear crop is set to decrease by 3.3 per cent.
Apples
For apples, the Southern Hemisphere forecast suggests an increase to 4.75mn tonnes compared to just under 4.5mn tonnes last year.
South Africa is expected to maintain its lead as the largest producer with 1.47mn tonnes, growth of 3.4 per cent on 2024.
This is followed by Brazil (950,000 tonnes, up 14.2 per cent|), Chile (920,000 tonnes, up 0.7 per cent), New Zealand (544,949 tonnes, up 5.6 per cent), Argentina (537,000 tonnes, up 5.8 per cent), and Australia (319,923 tonnes, up 5.5 per cent).
At 1.56mn tonnes, Wapa said that Gala is by far the most popular variety, with its volume expected to grow by 6.8 per cent year-on-year – although 2.3 per cent below the average of the previous three years.
Exports are also expected to increase by 5.3 per cent, to reach 1.65mn tonnes.
South Africa (up 5.5 per cent) and Chile (up 1 per cent), the two largest exporters, are both expected to increase their export volumes, reaching 641,488 tonnes and 507,000 tonnes respectively.
Exports from New Zealand should grow by 9.7 per cent to 376,106 tonnes, Wapa said, with growing export quantities also forecasted for Argentina (90,000 tonnes, up 8.2 per cent) and Brazil (36,547 tonnes, up 14.6 per cent).
Pears
In the pear category, meanwhile, Southern Hemisphere growers predict a slight decline in the crop (down 3.3 per cent), bringing the total to just over 1.44mn tonnes.
Argentina (616,000 tonnes), the largest producing country, is expected to decrease its volumes by 10.9 per cent.
South Africa (551,642 tonnes), Chile (208,025 tonnes), and Australia (62,467 tonnes), on the other hand, are all expected to increase their production by 2.9 per cent, 3 per cent, and 4.2 per cent respectively.
Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (601,322 tonnes, despite a 2.7 per cent decrease compared to 2024, followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (288,729 tonnes).
Export figures are also expected to decrease from 2024, with a total of 689,155 tonnes (down 4.4 per cent).
EU crop revision
The EU production forecast, which was first published during Prognosfruit 2024, was revised to 10.39m tonnes for apples (down 9.7 per cent from 2023) and 1.79mn tonnes (up 5.1 per cent) for pears.
European apple stocks stood at 3.69mn tonnes as of 1 January 2025, 4.3 per cent lower than in 2024.
On the other hand, the total of 608,544 tonnes for European pears is 4.5 per cent above the figures from the previous year.
The US apple forecast for 2024 stood at 5.38mn tonnes (down 2.3 per cent from 2023), while pear volumes were updated to 390,128 tonnes (down 21.5 per cent).
Stock figures in the US were 3.9 per cent lower than in 2024 for apples (2.05mn tonnes) and 26 per cent lower for pears (106,100 tonnes).
