The future for the specialised reefer business, a key link in the fresh produce supply chain, looks precarious as container fleets continue to erode their markets, according to a new report published today by independent maritime expert Drewry.
In its annual report into the global reefer shipping market, the analyst revealed that the trade growth forecast for the sector last year had been stunted by adverse economic conditions affecting all shipping sectors.
And while Drewry did suggest a possible return to growth for the reefer trade as a whole next year, it said the likelihood was that reefer containers would account for an increasing share of that expansion.
The perishable reefer trade stood at 156m tonnes in 2008, up 43m tonnes on 2000, with seaborne volumes accounting for 77m tonnes, some 57m tonnes higher than the year-earlier period.
“Reefer containers with their greater flexibility and often more competitive rates are dominating this sector,' explained Drewry managing director Nigel Gardiner. 'Their fleet is now dwarfing the specialised sector at 4,600 reefer container-compatible vessels compared with 763.'
The total reefer fleet is predicted to fall to between 458 and 635 vessels by January 2015, depending on where the age for scrapping ships is set on a scale of 30-35 years old.
'Even though global losses of US$20bn are forecast this year for the container industry as a whole, its share of reefer goods worldwide is set to grow from 56 per cent in 2008 to 71 per cent by 2015,' continued Mr Gardiner.
Since Drewry’s 2009 report was compiled, one of the top six reefer operators – New York-based shipping company Eastwind Maritime – has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. 'The question is, will more follow?” asked Mr Gardiner.
Among the report's other key findings are the fact that the past year has seen spot time charter rates cut in half, something which it says will almost certainly impact the 12-month market when charters are negotiated. Spot rates for 2010 are expected to increase, however.
Meanwhile, the top six specialised reefer operators control 52 per cent of capacity, and the average age of vessels varies from 12 to 21 years, Drewry reveals.
This compares favourably with the whole shipping industry at 24 years, although container vessels average a mere 10 years old by comparison.
Newbuilds for specialised reefers still remain low at only 10 orders, compared with the 1,100 container vessels on order.
One of the key characteristics of the reefer market is how traditional import regions are changing, says the report.
Western Europe and North America represented 46 per cent and 16 per cent of the global total respectively in 2000, but by 2008 those figures had declined to 40 per cent and 14 per cent.
Meanwhile, eastern European imports have risen from 9 per cent to 14 per cent over the same period.
In Russia, changes in food logistics patterns could affect trade flows, once again favouring the greater flexibility offered by the container fleet.
'Annual Reefer Market Review and Forecast 2009/10' is published by Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. Individual copies of the report are priced, including postage to any part of the world.
Print & PDF – GBP 1,290
PDF only – GBP 1,195
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