As the total forecast figure for South African citrus dips below 90m cartons, growers say they are increasingly worried about the negative effect the recent strengthening of their local currency, the rand, will have on returns this season.
With the 2009 export season reaching the halfway mark with the bulk of the Valencias still being shipped, the South African rand has reached its strongest level against the major currencies in more than a year.
As a result, expectations surrounding the outcome of the 2009 export season have become altogether less optimistic in recent weeks as factors beyond growers' control continue to make life difficult.
While the performance of South Africa's citrus exports in Asia markets continues to be reasonably bright despite the economic downturn, the strong local currency is dimming the lights somewhat.
At the same time, the country's total export forecast for citrus continues its declining trend. It is now expected that the total will drop well below 90m cartons by the time the last fruit is shipped.
The latest category team to announce a reduction in its original forecast is the Valencia Focus Group, which has revised its projected export crop down from 43m cartons to 40.5m cartons.
Valencias, which include the popular Midknight and Delta varieties, represent by far the biggest part of the South African crop and, for that reason, growers often remark that their destiny is not secure until the last carton of Valencias is sold.
With most of the navels now shipped, it is estimated that the final figure will settle around 20m cartons, more than a million cartons fewer than last year.
Grapefruit exports, meanwhile, are expected to finish at around 13.5m cartons, which although well short of the original prediction of 15m cartons, is significantly more than last year’s 12.4m cartons.
