The South African grape industry has issued what can be called a typical early season forecast indicating that there will only be marginal growth in the season which end in April next year.
On the other hand the Namibian grape industry anticipate exports of around 4.2m cartons, which will also be very much on par with the past season.
Both forecasts are of academic nature because it is so early in the season that it is almost impossible to give an accurate forecast.
Last year, South Africa exported some 54.6m cartons and industry body SATI predicts that in 2013 exports will end up between 53.8m and 55.1m million cartons.
Harvesting of trademarked variety Early Sweet is expected to start around week 44 in the Northern Province, where the total crop is expected to be between 4.2m and 4.5m cartons.
Prime will follow in week 45 and 46 – more or less the normal harvesting period – while Red Globe in the region could start earlier than usual.
In the Orange River, initial estimates show a good to heavy crop volume for most varieties, but the region's crop is expected to be harvested between five and seven days later than the previous season.
Orange River growers have predicted a crop of between 16.6m and 16.9m cartons compared with last year’s 16.8m cartons.
The smaller Olifants River region promises a good crop of Prime, Flame Seedless and Starlight, but the later ripening trend experienced in the Orange River is expected to continue here.
In the northern (early) part of the Berg River region, the season will also be a week later, with the crop estimated between 12.5m and 12.8m cartons – very much on a par with last year’s crop.
South Africa’s late region, the Hex River Valley, last year produced 18.43m cartons and growers are confident that they will at least match this figure in 2013.
Namibian outlook
Namibia, which starts harvesting about a week earlier than the Orange River, is expected to be a major force in the early season.
Aside from recent growth in red and black seedless varieties, growers here will also see more of the new cultivar range to be sold under the Arra banner.
These varieties were evaluated for the first time last season and have attracted interest from across South Africa, mainly because they do not carry any marketing restrictions and are popular with growers who would like to export their own fruit.
With the season about to start in all earnest, there is much concern about the effect that steeply increasing container freight rates will have on the grape industry.
One grape exporter says the US$1,500 per-container increase planned by Maersk Line could wipe out the net farm income of around 35 per cent of the country's grape sector.
