Total arrivals of plums, peaches and nectarines in Europe and the UK could be more than 45 per cent down on last season following recent damage to crops in Chile and South Africa.
This has been revealed after South Africa cut its total stonefruit forecast today follow rain and rain damage.
“The combined effect on supply from South Africa and Chile is estimated to be down by more than 45 per cent for plums, peaches and nectarines and 14 per cent down for apricots,” said Hortgro in a statement.
South Africa has reduced its forecast for stonefruit exports by nearly half a million cartons follow damage caused by hail and rain in week 46 and 47. The apricot and nectarine crops suffered most, with apricots having been reduced by some 21 per cent and nectarines by 8 per cent.
The new forecast predicts a total export volume of 10.866m cartons, 4 per cent down on last year’s total exports, but still almost 800,000 cartons more than the three average export figure.
Apricot exports are expected to reach only 878,000 cartons compared with the previous season’s 1.092m cartons. The nectarine export crop, at 3.022m cartons, is expected to be the lowest of the past three years.
“An accurate estimate of the impact of the hail and rain is still very difficult with the damage in many instances only becoming apparent as soon as fruit moves over the pack line,” said Hortgro in its latest export forecast update.
Cultivars that were in the process of being harvested suffered the greatest losses, but also the ones that would have been picked in the weeks thereafter.
“In general terms the impact of the damage on total stonefruit exports is estimated to be in the region of 5-10 per cent (vs previous season), although many individual growers suffered losses much greater than this. We used the best information to adjust the stone fruit export crop estimates accordingly.”
The fact that the total crop is expected to still be higher than the average of the last three years, reflects the growth in the sector during the past few years.
“The establishment of new orchards during the past five years is the main contributing factor softening the blow caused by the rain and hail,” noted Hortgro. “So the damage will be notable this season. Looking back in history it brings the estimated SA crop down to an average to below average one, while steady growth was expected prior to these adverse weather conditions.”
Hortgro added that in the light of the severe frost damage that the Chilean stonefruit industry has suffered previously, one can expect that there will be pressure on supply to the export markets.
