The South African citrus export crop could drop by more than 20 per cent from the pre-season estimate of 95.6m cartons as cautious growers reduce shipments due to tight markets around the world.
'The predicted citrus export crop now stands at 85.5m cartons following another reduction in the Valencia estimate,' said Justin Chadwick of the Citrus Growers' Association. 'We expect further reductions and the final export figure could be somewhere between 75m and 80m cartons.'
Exporters told Fruitnet.com this week that the season would most likely come to an early end, while the CGA also recently warned the industry that stocks in a number of markets were above the five-year average, and that caution should be exercised over shipments for the rest of the season.
At the end of week 32, just over 50m cartons had been exported, with a further 13m cartons already packed and ready for shipment. The Valencia crop, which is set to dominate the rest of the season, is now 5m cartons less than the original estimate. Less than 50 per cent of Valencia volumes, which account for almost half of the total citrus crop, have been packed so far.
'Caution over the markets is probably having the biggest influence on the reduction of the forecast, but in some areas the crop is definitely lighter than originally expected,' said Mr Chadwick.
