In Italy, the Vog consortium is anticipating a return to a more typical apple season in 2018/19, after what it called an 'abnormal' campaign in 2017/18 which ended prematurely with product running out.
“This is an absolutely unheard-of situation – I can’t remember it ever happening in the past,' explained director Gerhard Dichgans. 'During these last few months there has been a shortage of European apples, and it appears that even the volumes of product imported from the Southern Hemisphere – in the specific case of Royal Gala - will only be able to cover demand up until the third week in August.
“Even if the new European apple harvest looks like being abundant, it will find plenty of potential demand and an empty market, ready and waiting to consume the first fresh apples, which are now coming through,' he said.
Despite question marks over this year's forecast bumper European apple crop of over 12m tonnes and its affect on the market, Dichgans remains optimistic.
“Last season taught us an important lesson, which we must not forget: even though retail prices were sky-high in all European markets, volume consumption held up well throughout the central months of the season,' he continued. 'This gives me confidence for the new season, too: if prices drop back to ‘normal’ levels, consumption may really take off, provided it is supported by impeccable product quality.”
For its member cooperatives, Vog is forecasting a fresh apple harvest of 550,000 tonnes, an increase of 17 per cent when compared to 2017 but still less than in the record year of 2016, when over 600,000 tonnes of fresh apples were harvested.
“If we look at the estimates by variety, the figures point to an increase of 9 per cent for Royal Gala, while the Golden and Red Delicious crops will be up 30 per cent and 25 per cent respectively,” Dichgans noted.
Forecasts for Granny Smith and Fuji are stable, with the same volumes as in the two previous seasons. Braeburn is expected to recover, with a crop midway between the two previous years.
The prospects for club apples are good, with an increase for Pink Lady, Kanzi and Jazz, and a major surge for the still “young” Envy, thanks to the orchards planted in the previous years.
There is also a growth in output of organic apples, with more than 22.000 tonnes, an increase of 48 per cent compared to 2017.
“We dispatched the first trucks immediately after the mid-August holiday, and I am expecting a very lively start to the campaign, since we are facing an empty market, with no carry-over of apples from the old crop and very few overseas apples,' he outlined.
“The initial price quotations reflect those of the summer market for oversea apples, but it is premature to forecast how prices will develop in the coming weeks. We will have to wait for the harvests to really get under way in the main growing areas: for sure, we have to forget last season’s prices, though I am not expecting prices to collapse to the levels of three or four years ago.
In fact, crops in the key growing countries of 'old' Europe – such as France, Italy and Germany – will be 5 per cent to 6 per cent below the average for 2014-2016, which Dichgans said made him optimistic of a much more balanced market in the coming season.
'The real question mark is the export potential of those markets in the Mediterranean area which absorbed the surplus product after the Russian embargo,' Dichgans said. 'The most important thing is to recover the markets we were forced to neglect last season, and guarantee our customers continuity of supply to enable them to plan a full season again.”
