The value of New Zealand's agricultural exports is forecast to rise over the next four years thanks to steady production growth, a strengthening global economy and a weakening NZ dollar, a recent government study predicts.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry's (MAF) latest Situation and Outlook report, published earlier this month, expects a “strong growth in export revenues” beyond 2012 as produce volumes rise and the NZ dollar depreciates.
MAF cites Treasury projections for the local currency to remain 'at historically high levels' until mid-2012 before depreciating to 'around the historic averages'.
The report estimates the value of kiwifruit exports to rise by 42 per cent to NZ$1.3bn (US$1.04bn) between 2011 and 2015, despite increasing just 6 per cent in volume terms in the four-year period.
The increasing proportion of Gold kiwifruit coming on-stream, with returns nearly twice Green kiwifruit, is expected to open new markets and drive export returns, MAF said.
Apples and pears exports, meanwhile, are forecast to rise 13.8 per cent in value terms to NZ$455m (US$365.8m).And vegetable shipments are pegged to jump 12.5 per cent in value to NZ$630m (US$506.4m) by 2014.
'The outlook is encouraging for the New Zealand apple and pear sector, with potential for market expansion in Australia and Asia, and an increasing proportion of new varieties planted,' MAF said.
Global economic growth will ensure demand for New Zealand's agricultural commodities, the report said, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting the world economy to grow 4 per cent in 2011 and 2012.
Growth will be concentrated in Asia, with China expected to expand 9 per cent in each of the next two years and India to grow 8 per cent, MAF said. Other significant Asian markets, such as Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines are all expected to grow faster than 5 per cent in 2011 and 2012.
The US economy is still in recovery mode and the European Union has the most subdued economic outlook among New Zealand's major trading partners, the report noted.
'The economic outlook for New Zealand agriculture trading partners, while still uneven, is significantly better than 12 months ago,' MAF said. 'Many of the financial risks have faded as private sector balance sheets have been repaired.'
For the full report, go to www.maf.govt.nz and click on Publications.
