Higher volumes and increasing competition herald challenging season for exporters
Peruvian avocado production is forecast to grow by more than 23 per cent in 2025. With just days to go to the start of the season – which runs from February to September, expectations of a positive campaign are running high according to FreshFruit Peru.
“With the plants rested, significantly higher production is expected, provided the weather and other external factors are favourable,” the consultancy said. “However, this increase poses significant challenges, such as ensuring good product placement to avoid a drop in prices, especially in a scenario of increasing competition.”
Mexico continues to expand its production year after year, and Colombia is gaining market share at an accelerated pace. In a positive scenario, FreshFruit estimates that the value of exports could increase by 12-15 per cent. However, other factors could significantly influence key markets such as Europe and the US, such as possible tariffs that the Trump administration may impose on Mexico.
In 2024, shipments of all avocado formats fell by 6 per cent in volume but increased 27 per cent in value, finishing the year on 623,662 tonnes worth US$1.385bn. Ninety-three per cent of this was fresh, 6 per cent frozen and 1 per cent processed.
An almost 35 per cent hike in average prices due to the lower supply boosted results, along with increased market diversification and better planning in the placement of the fruit in terms of times and customers.
As for the producing regions, in the last year, 16 regions managed to certify shipments. The main ones were Lima, with a 33 per cent share; La Libertad, with 27 per cent; and Ica, with 21 per cent.
Europe remains the main destination for Peruvian avocados. In 2024, nearly 403,000 tonnes worth US$913mn were shipped to this market, practically the same volume as the previous year, but with a growth in value of more than 38 per cent.
However, the outlook for 2025 is more challenging, especially in terms of prices, due to the accelerated growth of Colombia in most markets.
Last year, Peruvian shipments to the US fell by almost 15 per cent in volume, but grew 16 per cent in value.
“This market moves to the rhythm of Mexican avocados, highly valued by American consumers. Peruvian production has only managed to position itself when Mexico stops its shipments at the end of its campaign,” FreshFruit said.
“Looking ahead to 2025, the arrival of the new Trump administration keeps the threat of tariffs latent, especially for Mexico, which could represent an opportunity to improve the position of Peruvian avocados. However, as of the closing of this article, Trump’s latest warning was paused for a month, with no clear signs that it will be implemented later.
“But even if the imposition of tariffs were to take place, there is no guarantee that Peru would not also be affected, given the link with Chinese investments in export infrastructure, such as the Chancay megaport.”
