Further taxes announced by Trump on imports of agricultural products would slash exports by 35.12 per cent says consultancy firm
Plans by President Trump on Monday to impose further tariffs on imports of agricultural products will cause Mexican fruit and vegetable exports to the US to fall by more than a third, according to analysis by Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA).
On Monday the American president announced through his social media network Truth Social that he would put new tariffs on food imports from 2 April, without providing details on how much the tariff will be or which countries it will apply to.
However, even the suggestion of further tariffs has caused consternation amongst Mexican producers. In 2024, the US bought more than US$49bn in agricultural products from Mexico – including 47 per cent of imported vegetables and 40 per cent of fruits.
“In the event that the US decides to apply a 25 per cent tariff on agricultural products – the same rate it has applied on all imports from Mexico and Canada from today – the immediate effect for Mexico will be the loss of competitiveness of its exports and the loss of consumers,” GCMA said.
It estimates that the price of fruits and vegetables will increase approximately 13.4 per cent in the US, hitting consumer demand and causing fruit and vegetable exports to fall by 35.12 per cent. Avocados, tomatoes and berries would be amongst the hardest hit products.
Mexico exported US$3.418bn of avocados to the US last year. With a tariff of 25 per cent – equivalent to around US$855mn – those same exports would increase to US$4.273bn.
In 2024, Americans imported US$3.124bn of Mexican tomatoes – with a 25 per cent tariff the final cost would be US$3.905bn.
GCMA predicted that another effect of the additional tariffs would be to cause fruit and vegetables prices in Mexico to fall by 5.67 per cent due to excess supply, while the production could eventually contract by 11.88 per cent.
