Official estimates peg the 2010/11 Mexican Hass avocado crop at a record 1.24m tonnes – a 6.4 per cent increase over the prior year, the USDA reports.
However, private sector sources indicate production will be similar to 2009/10, and harsh weather in Mexico's principal growing region Michoacán early next year could lower official estimates, the USDA said.
Exports are forecast at 410,000 tonnes for the 2010/11 season, in line with the previous season's estimate.
Shipments to the US from Michoácan – currently the only state authorised to export avocados to America – are pegged at 270,000 tonnes, the same as last season, but down 11 per cent on volumes exported in 2008/09, the report said.
Other important export markets for Mexican Hass avocados include Japan, Canada, France and El Salvador, the USDA said.
China is an untapped market Mexico is seeking to enter.
Some 92 per cent of Mexico's avocados are grown in Michoacán.
