Leading French apple grower-shippers are sceptical about the European crop forecast released by the World Apple & Pear Association (Wapa) at the Prognosfruit conference in Italy this month, and claim there will be lower volumes than predicted.
Some doubt predictions that Europe is set for its second-largest apple crop in a decade, arguing that unseasonably warm weather in June and July across many Mediterranean and eastern European regions is likely to reduce overall yields.
Wapa forecasts the 2015/16 EU apple crop for fresh and processing to be around 12m tonnes, 4 per cent down on last year, but 11 per cent up on the five-year average. Its data predicts a strong crop in Poland, Italy, France, Portugal, Slovenia and the Czech Republic, with declines expected in Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, Hungary and Greece.
But Marc Peyres, export director for French apple grower-shipper group Blue Whale which represents growers across France, believes actual European volumes will be much lower.
“Prognosfruit figures are not reflecting reality,” he told Fruitnet. “In Spain, Italy and France a large proportion of the Gala crop is grown in the Mediterranean region, which experienced particularly hot weather in June and July. So I think there will be huge consequences in terms of availability. I think volumes will be down on forecasts.
'This year the European forecast for the fresh market was 7.7m tonnes before taking into account the hot summer weather: this is 300,000 tonnes less than last year. And in western Europe, the fresh market volumes are forecast at 5.1m tonnes – just average for the last seven seasons.”
Inaccurate Prognosfruit figures are misleading and potentially dangerous, in Peyres' view, and something needs to be done to improve their reliability. By gearing up the industry to expect a bumper crop when volumes aren’t there can destabilise markets, he said.
“If the Prognosfruit forecast can’t be accurate, perhaps it’s better not to have it at all,” he said. “Or maybe we should work on quantities for the fresh market only, like they do in the US.'
Blue Whale's apple harvesting started last week (10 August) as normal in south-western France, and the group's early volumes were experiencing very strong demand and high prices in all markets thanks to no overhang from Southern Hemisphere fruit, Peyres said.
“The start of the season has been very strong – prices haven’t started this high in many years, and the longer-term prospects look good too,” he added.
