The first forecast for the 2009 South African citrus season has predicted an increase in the country's grapefruit production, with lemon, navel, Valencia and soft citrus yields expected to remain stable compared with the previous year.
In 2008 the country exported just short of 90m cartons, with an increase of between 10-15 per cent in the grapefruit crop meaning that the figure could be surpassed this year.
However Justin Chadwick, chief executive of the Citrus Growers' Association, said that there was as yet no consensus on the overall forecast and that the final figure would be released in the first week of March.
'It is very difficult to make an accurate forecast so early in the season,' said Mr Chadwick, adding that he expected grapefruit and lemons to start harvesting earlier this year, with other categories ripening normally.
The South African industry is expecting a difficult season this year due to the international economic climate, but this is expected to have a smaller influence in the Far East than in western markets.
'We would be naïve if we were to think that the severe economicpressures in the west will not also play themselves out in the east asfar as consumer buying power is concerned,' Mr Chadwick said.'Exporters will have to take note of these conditions when they maketheir marketing decisions.'
Exactly how much fruit should be exported this year has been the subject of much discussion since the end of the last season, when exporters suffered losses on end of season sales and the market in Russia collapsed. Mr Chadwick went public with his views that around 80m cartons should be the benchmark this season, adding that it was no good doing well for 90 per cent of the crop and losing profit on the last ten per cent.
'We discussed supply and demand indicators this week and the emphasis will be on only exporting the best quality fruit and responsible pricing policies which will contribute to good movement of produce throughout the season,' he said. 'Most in the industry agree that fruit should not be exported unless prices have been agreed beforehand, which will eliminate speculation.'
