Argentina is expected to experience a “very difficult” lemon season in 2009, with local analyst Top Info Marketing predicting the “lowest” prices of the last few years, following a successful 2008 campaign.
Despite an anticipated growth in production, Top Info said exports are forecast to fall significantly from the record 400,000 tonnes last year, when prices rocketed due to crop shortfalls in Spain and Turkey – Argentina’s main competitors.
“It’s difficult to estimate by how much Argentinean lemon exports will decline in 2009 given that the season has only just started,” Betina Ernst of Top Info told Fruitnet.com. “The worst expectations are for a 300,000-tonne export crop and the most optimistic are for 360,000 tonnes.”
“Lemon production in Spain and Turkey has recovered strongly this year, so there is a large offer on the market. The recession has caused a strong devaluation in the currencies of Argentina’s largest export markets – Russia and the EU (the UK and Poland in particular) – so buyers are reducing their orders. Demand has fallen and prices are extremely low right now,” added Ms Ernst.
On the upside, the quality and sizes of Argentinean lemons are expected to be very good this season. The bulk of the crop will be shipped to the EU, which should receive a similar volume to 2006 or 2007 – around 200,000 tonnes.
Exports to eastern Europe and especially Russia are expected to be much lower in comparison to recent seasons. Shipments to smaller markets, such as Canada and Asia, are likely to remain stable at around 20,000 tonnes.
