The National Retail Federation (NRF) in the US has today (Tuesday 27 January) released its 2009 economic forecast, projecting a 0.5 per cent decrease in retail industry sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) in comparison to last year.
According to its quarterly Retail Sales Outlook report, NRF sees more challenges ahead as consumers continue to shift their spending priorities.
“Most of the consumer behavior we saw in 2008 will continue well into this year,” said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells. “Shoppers will be seeking value and trading down to discount and off-price retailers in order to stretch their purchasing power.”
The first half of the year will see a continuation of the weakness that was felt in most of 2008. First-half sales are expected to decline 2.5 per cent. There will be some improvement in the third quarter with sales decreasing 1.1 per cent. In the fourth quarter, sales are expected to improve 3.6 per cent due to easy comparisons to last year as well as a strengthening economy.
The NRF is the world’s largest retail trade association, representing an industry with more than 1.6m US retail establishments, over 24m employees and 2008 sales of US$4.6 trillion.
As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations.
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