The Washington apple crop is now expected to total 102m cartons, down from the 106m cartons projected originally, according to a 1 November estimate from the Wenatchee Valley Traffic Association.
A smaller-than-expected Red Delicious crop is one of the key factors behind the drop, with production of the major export variety now put at 30.6m cartons, down from a 1 August estimate of 33.5m cartons.
Fruit sizing on the Red Delicious crop is smaller than initially predicted, but that is no bad thing for exports, according to Rebecca Baerveldt-Lyons, export marketing manager for the Washington Apple Commission.
“Smaller sizing in general is a positive as many of our export markets take smaller sizes, although that is changing to some degree,” she told Fruitnet.com.
Red Delicious prices are riding much higher than last year, with the USDA reporting prices of US$22-24 per carton (count 72) on 8 November, up from US$16-18 per carton at the corresponding stage last year. But strong demand from key export markets appears to be offsetting the impact of the higher prices.
“India’s domestic production is down so we’ve seen very strong early season demand from there,” Baerveldt-Lyons said. “In the season to date, our overall Red Delicious shipments covering both domestic and export are a little lower than last year, but there are three markets that are really going to be pushing up that price: India, Indonesia and Mexico.”
Indeed, India has got off to a flying start this year, with shipments in the season to 15 November reaching 333,000 cartons, up 62 per cent on the same time last year. “Right now, India is really driving demand,” noted Baerveldt-Lyons.
In 2010/11, Washington apple exports to India reached a record 3.3m cartons, pushing this up-and-coming export market into third spot behind Mexico and Canada, and the industry is hopeful of surpassing that feat this season. “We think we could do 4m cartons `this season`, but it depends on the availability of fruit later in the season,” said Baerveldt-Lyons.
The hot demand from India has helped to make up for a sluggish start in Indonesia, where shipments through 15 November were 40 per cent down on the same stage last year, at 275,000 cartons.
“That’s partly due to the strong pricing on Reds,” said Baervedlt-Lyons. “Also Chinese apples are getting diverted from Thailand into Indonesia because of the flooding, which is increasing the pressure on the market.”
Promotional activities across Asian markets are about to ramp up, she said, after being delayed by a later-bearing crop. “Typically we’d have already started with our promotions, but the harvest is two weeks behind so there’s been a delay in getting fruit into the market,” she noted.
With Chinese New Year on the horizon, festive promotions will take place in China, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Indonesia moving into December. The smaller sizing of this season’s Red Delicious crop does not augur so well for shipments into northern China, however, where larger fruit is preferred. “We’ll probably see some drop off on direct shipments into China this year as that’s the usual trend when the fruit is smaller,” Baerveldt-Lyons acknowledged.
While the overall crop estimate has been reduced, industry officials believe it could be revised upwards again on the 1 December estimate, especially in view of the delay to the crop.
Lack of labour to pick the crop has also been a factor in the revised figure, according to local industry sources. Many growers are attributing the labour shortage to rising tensions around illegal immigration that have scared off migrant workers.
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