Export revenue from New Zealand’s primary industries is now tipped to top NZ$44.3bn for the 12 months ending June 2019.
The December forecast, provided by the country’s Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI), has increased NZ$505m from the previous September forecast round. MPI pointed to higher dairy production, a stronger outlook for beef prices and increased forestry production as key drivers behind the revised forecast.
Horticulture export revenue over the 12 month period is predicted to rise 12 per cent year-on-year to NZ$6bn.
As the 2018 New Zealand apple and pear export season nears completion, new records look to have been set. International shipments are expected to reach 378,000 tonnes (21m cartons) and NZ$780m for the year ending December 2018.
“Strong demand from European and Asian markets have lifted the average export price to a new high of $37.15 per export carton,” according to the MPI’s Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report.
New Zealand’s kiwifruit sector continues to prosper in terms of both volume and value. As of September, export revenue was around 25 per cent higher than the same point the previous two years, despite a nearly 25 per cent increase in production. Revenue is forecast to rise to NZ$2.2bn for the year ending March 2019.
Cherry export revenue is forecast to increase 25 per cent to NZ$100m over the next four years, amid plans to plant an additional 465ha of orchards in the Central Otago region over the next five years. New Zealand has a total cherry orchard area of 726ha as of 2017, according to the SOPI report.
“New Zealand’s cherry industry remains much smaller than competing growing regions such as Chile, where 25,000ha are planted in cherries as of 2016,” the report said. “However, New Zealand’s products compare favourably in markets, with 137 per cent price premium over Chilean cherries in the Chinese market in 2017.”
Another of New Zealand’s emerging horticultural categories, avocados, is forecast to return NZ$130m in export revenue for the year ending June 2019. Australia absorbs around 85 per cent of New Zealand’s avocado export crop, although the newly opened Chinese market provides fresh opportunities.
“Australian domestic production has increased on average 12 per cent per year over the last 4 years, which could start to put pressure on the market for New Zealand fruit, although domestic consumption there has seen similarly strong growth,” the SOPI report said.
Looking beyond 2019, a long range forecast predicts New Zealand’s primary industry exports to fall slightly to NZ$44bn for the year ending June 2020. The next forecast is scheduled for mid-March 2019.
