Chinese fresh produce importers are focused on getting fruit into China in time for Chinese New Year on 8 February 2016 when demand for high-quality products, required for gifts and celebratory meals, typically soars and prices rise. As always, though, a number of different factors will determine the ultimate success of their New Year import deals.
ECONOMY
Slowing growth in China during 2015 has raised a red flag for fruit distributors. Towards the end of 2015, China’s economy slowed to a six-year low of 6.9 per cent, according to financial reports, raising concerns that China’s period of low growth will extend into next year.
Demand for some imported fruits has slowed this year in line with the struggling economy, some importers report. They warn that the economic slowdown will cause consumers to be more cautious in their spending in the run-up to Chinese New Year, which may cause imported fruit prices to fall.
TIMING
The slightly earlier date of the festival (on 8 Feburary 2016, eleven days earlier than in 2015) will benefit Chilean cherry and blueberry exporters this Chinese New Year, distributors agree.
Oliver Davies of UK headquartered distributor S&A Group expects to see greater Chilean blueberry volumes shipped to China for the festival period, since it falls in the middle of the sea-freight season.
Chilean cherries will also be “a big winner”, according to George Liu, general manager at importer Sunshine Fruit.
Chinese importers usually wait until Chilean cherry prices drop before putting in their Chinese New Year orders, he says, but because the festival falls earlier they have had to stock up while prices remain high.
The earlier timing of the festival may prompt the launch of a faster vessel service between Chile and China to get maximum cherry volumes to the market in the time available, adds Kurt Huang of Shanghai-based customs broker Fruitease.
However, he says whether the huge volume shipped to China can be moved smoothly all depends on the quality. “Cherry is always the main item promoted by e-commerce channels in China. Nowadays everybody is on social media, so every single consumer comment, good or bad, matters.”
CHILEAN BLUEBERRIES
John Wang of importer Lantao says Chinese importers are once again going “crazy” for Chilean blueberries and cherries. He predicts a flood of product so low prices.
Kurt Huang of Fruitease says last Chilean blueberry season was a total disaster in China. “Only if the arrival quality can be improved can the Chilean blueberry avoid another tragedy,” he says.
“The blueberry season has started earlier this year thanks to greenhouse production. And the fact that Chile’s 5th Region and Metropolitan Region are now recognised as non Med-fly quarantine zones means early harvested blueberries from these areas can be shipped to China by air, and the supply will be stable. For those shipments by sea, quality is still the main concern.”
RED GLOBE GRAPES
The supply and demand situation for Chilean Red Globe grapes should be more stable than last year, when the market was flooded with the fruit, says Liu of Sunshine Fruit.
However, Ignacio Smith, Delica Global, says the first arrivals of Peruvian Red Globe grapes haven’t been a good fit for the Chinese market. “I think in terms of this season it will not bring in better prices than previous ones.”
Some Peruvian grape growers pruned early, mainly in the north, to ensure the fruit was harvested early in case the predicted El Nino rains arrived and damaged quality, according to Rod Hill, Golden Wing Mau.
“Too much marginal quality in size and colour was shipped resulting in the huge arrivals last year,” he says. “The combined effects of more early exports and less marginal fruit being exported to China should result in a better market. I don’t expect the Red Globe volume to increase dramatically, but it could still be close to last year’s volume hopefully with better quality.”
APPLES
Chinese consumers may be unable to afford Washington apples this Chinese New Year because prices are higher due to lower supply, according to some distributors.
Ignacio Smith, Delica Global, says Washington Red Delicious volume available for China is less than expected by quite a significant amount, providing possible openings for other apple varieties. He adds, however, that the Chinese market up to late November has been difficult for most apple varieties.
