Sector faces losses of US$1.6bn following collapse of the Chinese market and Saltoro fiasco
The Chilean cherry sector is set to rack up losses of at least US$1.6bn in the 2024/25 season according to analysis by the consulting firm Colliers.
With exports almost concluded, manager Rodrigo Gil said the signs are “not encouraging”, despite the industry previously forecasting that this would be its best season ever.
In China, which takes more than 90 per cent of Chile’s cherry output, prices collapsed following unprecedentedly high shipment volumes. Exports grew 60 per cent compared to last season, saturating the market and causing prices to fall by 50 per cent from 2023/24.
To add to Chile’s woes, the Chinese authorities confirmed that they had rejected the entire cargo from the Saltoro, the Maersk ship stranded in the Pacific for more than 20 days, due to the poor condition of the fruit. The vessels was carrying 1,300 containers of cherries valued at more than US$120mn.
“Based on the average expected returns of previous seasons, and the results that are we are seeing in the current one, the losses for producers and exporters are estimated at around US$1.5bn,” Gil said.
The estimate is based on average net return values of US$5/kg to the producer in the past three seasons, and an estimated return of US$2.5/kg in the most optimistic of scenarios for the current season.
Colliers cited several reasons for the losses, chief among them the dramatic increase in exports, which went from 83mn cartons in 2023/24 to 120mn cartons in 2024/25, and the concentration of arrivals ahead of the Chinese New Year at the end of January.
“An early Chinese New Year (29 January), the subsequent rush of Chinese importers to receive fruit and a rather cold spring season in Chile meant that the bulk of the first fruit shipments were cherries of not the best quality, mainly due to lack of ripeness, and this caused them to be quoted at a lower value than in 2024 and slowed down demand in China,” Gil explained.
He added that even when the fruit did arrive in its optimal state of ripeness, it did so in such large quantities and faced such a high volume of accumulated stock that prices were unable to recover.
With nearly 80,000ha of cherries planted in Chile and export volumes projected to reach 200mn cartons by 2030, producers face an uncertain outlook in the coming years. What is clear is that banking on Chinese consumers to absorb this extra volume is no longer an option.
