According to a recent World Bank report, by 2014 Indonesia will have 150m middle-class consumers, far more than other South East Asian countries like Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia. Currently Indonesia’s GDP per capita is around US$3,700, but this is expected to grow to US$5,000 by 2015. Indonesia will then have more than 30m upper-middle-class consumers - an amazing new emerging market in South East Asia.
Many Indonesian importers estimate fresh fruit imports will reach almost $US1bn soon. Indonesian government statistics show the country imported almost US$2bn in horticultural products last year. Around 19 per cent of this is cloves, 18 per cent garlic and onions, and more than 45 per cent is fresh fruit imported from more than 20 countries worldwide.
Indonesian consumption of fresh fruits is still below the level recommended by the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). In a 2004 survey conducted by Indonesian Statistics Bureau, 60 per cent of those polled consumed just one portion of fruit per day. On average Indonesian’s consume around 40kg per capita of fresh fruit each year - far below the FAO recommended level of 70kg per capita. The conclusion is Indonesia will be a lucrative market for fresh imported fruits in the future. One importer estimates Indonesia could be worth US$2bn for fresh imported fruits by 2015/16.
The domestic industry here faces many challenges, with one of the biggest being distribution. Indonesia currently has fewer than 250 big hypermarket stores and fewer than 1,000 modern supermarket outlets with decent cold chain facilities. As a result, Indonesia also has problems in distributing its own domestic fresh produce. Many areas producing exotic tropical fruits have a very limited distribution. The quantity of fresh fruits in these regions is also limited. Mostly commercial farming techniques are not used rather they are small backyard-style operations. This makes the fruit less commercial as effective economic scales are seldom reached. Therefore the farmers cannot command excellent profits. If the fruit is transported to other areas often it will not be competitive at all. This means imported produce can compete with domestically-grown fruit.
Around six months ago, the Indonesian government endorsed several new regulations to ‘buy time’ to push domestic fresh fruits to catch up and to compete with other fresh imported produce.
However, with the month of Ramadan approaching in July, many importers and retailers wonder if the Indonesian market will have sufficient supply of fresh fruits without price increases. Several issues are still unclear and the registration of various licenses is still an ongoing process. Also many major shipping lines have refused to ship fresh fruits to Indonesia.
Despite the problems with the new regulations, one importer I spoke with said that they would never give up and would find a way to supply the market. Indonesian importers have already requested a joint team be formed between importers and the Indonesian government to make the implementation of the regulations run smoothly. Indonesian importers have also requested a transition time before the full implementation.
Indonesia is too precious a market. It has strong potential and the future looks very bright. With Indonesia likely to be a US$2bn fresh fruit market in less than five years the new regulations can only be a temporary hurdle.
Kafi Kurnia is a marketing and branding consultant based in Jakarta with more than 20 years experience of working with various horticultural groups.
