The overall export revenue from New Zealand's primary sector is expected to increase to NZ$37.6bn over the year ending June 2016, up NZ$1.9bn from the year ended June 2015, according to the New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries’ (MPI) updated Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI).
Horticulture is expected to play a leading role in the projected growth, with the industry’s export revenue tipped to rise to NZ$4.8bn over 2015/16, up from NZ$4.1bn in 2014/15.
The SOPI report tips pipfruit export volumes and values to increase steadily, with volumes reaching a 360,000 tonnes in 2017 as recent plantings come into full production. Demand is expected to be strong for both apples and pears over the early stages of the 2016 season.
“Reduced apple production in the US and some European countries in 2015 should mean a less competitive market for Southern Hemisphere fruit in 2016,” according to the SOPI report. “Export prices for apples and pears are forecast to increase steadily, alongside volume increases.”
In other sectors, green kiwifruit yields reached record levels in the 2015, with an average packout of 11,000 trays per hectare, 30 per cent higher than traditional averages due to favourable climatic conditions. Future production increases are likely to be driven by gold kiwifruit, with Gold3 (SunGold) production expected to leap to around 50m trays by 2018, up from 12m trays in 2014.
The report forecasts a 35 per cent decline in avocado exports over 2015/16 compared to the previous 12 month period, a result of biennial bearing patterns on orchards.
Vegetable export volumes are expected to grow slightly in the short to medium term based on current market access and competitiveness expectations.
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