A USDA GAIN report has forecast Chinese orange imports to rise 13 per cent to 100,000 tonnes over the 12 months to 1 November 2015. The report highlighted growing consumer demand for counter seasonal Southern Hemisphere fruit as the key driver for the increase, along with a significant reduction in domestic production.
China’s overall orange crop volume is forecast to fall to 6.9m over the 2014/15 marketing year (ending 1 November), down 10 per cent on the corresponding period 12 months earlier. The USDA report attributes the shortfall a sharp decline in production out of the Jiangxi province, China’s largest orange producing region. Jiangxi’s year-on-year crop volume is projected to decline by 20 per cent following the spread of a citrus greening disease. Consequently, China’s orange exports are forecast to fall 17 per cent to 90,000 tonnes over the 2014/15 market year.
Tangerine and Mandarin exports out of the People’s Republic are tipped to rise 3 per cent to 770,000 tonnes on the back of improved harvests from provinces such as Guangxi, Hubei, Hunan and Fujian. The greening disease has again seen mandarin production decline in Jiangxi.
Chinese mandarin imports are tipped to rise by over 30 per cent to 24,000 tonnes over 2014/15, although this overall volume remains low compared to other citrus varieties. Grapefruit imports are forecast to increase by 23 percent to 32,000 tonnes, with imports from South Africa expected to rise to meet this demand.
South Africa remains China’s largest overall supplier of citrus by volume, ahead of Australia. The United States, with a market share of approximately 13 percent, is the third largest supplier, however, the lifting of a suspension on Californian citrus may allow the North American nation to reclaim the number one mantle over coming seasons.
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