Exporters prepare for a slow season after the hottest summer in history has put fruit diameter at the smallest measured size in two decades
If you’re part of the fresh produce business, you come to expect at least some level of inconsistency. But even veterans would say California’s navel industry has been hit particularly hard in recent years.
Last year, California growers had to contend with overly large diameter fruit along with a high proportion of insect damage. This season, while appearance is much improved, oranges are running on the small side. With the state’s weather apparently becoming more volatile, this inconsistency is likely here to stay.
In 2023, a massive outbreak of rind-damaging insects (“thrip”) produced a much higher percentage of second-grade navels than had been seen in years. Weather was at the root of the problem as persistent rains delayed spraying that would have normally limited insect populations. The rains were again to blame for the large-fruit syndrome due to improved ground moisture.
“The fruit is just too large this year!” said veteran California citrus grower, Tom Wollenman, at the time.
In contrast, this season’s smaller size curve can be traced to one of the hottest summers in the history of the San Joaquin Valley.
“We had massive heat starting in July and it never really let up,” says Wollenman. “When it’s that prolonged, the trees shut down (metabolically) and fruit stops growing. Combined with months of no rain, there’s just a lack of large-sized navels this season.”
According to a USDA pre-season forecast, navel orange diameter was the smallest measured in two decades. This is likely attributable in part to the amount of fruit observed in orchards, which averaged 414 oranges per tree across the San Joaquin Valley – the most since the 2018 season. Too many small-sized navels can be a problem for the industry because most markets prefer size 72, 88 and even 56.
“This year, the bulk of the fruit is falling between 88’s and 113’s,” says Wollenman. “That’s likely going to limit the amount of exports we’ll have this year.”
Umina Bros’ Mark Golden agrees, saying exports are hurting somewhat this year.
“China, Japan and Korea all want big sizes and there just aren’t that many of them – 56’s and 48’s are virtually non-existent,” he says.
Fortunately for California growers, the orange juice market is providing strong returns due to a short Brazilian crop and dwindling supplies from Florida.
There is also some hope still from Korea, which continues to be the largest offshore market for California navels. Korea typically ramps up its importing by mid-February, aiming for early March arrivals when tariffs are lifted.
“Most Korean importers have been holding off shipping with major volume until about now,” noted Steve Holly of Voita International Produce in mid-February.
“But there’s a lot of uncertainty in the (Asia) markets since China’s economy is shaky while Japan’s has been stagnant for a year. Korea has had a lot of political unrest recently, which doesn’t help. Add in a very strong US dollar and South-East Asia inundated with (low cost) Chinese oranges and it’s a bit tough out there.”
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