A big crop and the expectation that exports to Asia will yield better on-farm results may attract a larger portion of South African grape production to the Far East this year.
Ironically it is not the expectation that Asian markets will be particularly strong that lead shippers to expect better returns, but rather that the South African currency has weakened further against the US dollar - the currency in which most transactions in Asia are conducted.
“The US dollar has now strengthened by 40 points against the rand and is performing better that the two traditional market currencies, namely the British pound sterling and the euro,” says Leon de Kock of Alliance Fruit.
De Kock and other exporters say South Africans will be able to price their produce keenly against competing supplies as a result and still return more money to the farm. “If it was not for the exchange rate, we would not have been so confident this year,” says de Kock.
The total volume to be shipped to the Far East will also depend on how the grape crop shapes up in terms of preferred Asian market specification. It is reported that Sugraone berry size may be a problem in some areas. This may affect early shipments.
“If the weather continues to play along,” says SATI’s Willem Bestbier, “we may harvest one of our biggest crops in more than a decade. There is a very good crop on the vines.”
He confirmed that South Africa will ship more than 62m cartons this year, which is an increase of around 4m cartons compared with last season. The Namibian crop will be around 6m cartons this year, with increased interest in supplying more to the Asian market.
Pre-Chinese New Year shipments will consist mainly of Sugraone, Rally Seedless and Midknight Beauty. Increased volumes of Autumn Royal will depend on how the grapes colour up.
“We are hoping to ship some early volumes of Crimson Seedless in time for Chinese New Year,” says CORE’s Nico van Staden. “There is however not great market pull at the moment, and in China specifically there are a lot of cherries which compete with grapes for shelf space.”
South Africa has become the leading Crimson Seedless supplier to China, and according to exporters, it is very popular with the trade. One must therefore expect that whilst a range of other cultivers will be shipped, Crimson Seedless will again dominate the season.
Orange River Producers’ Association chairman Piet du Plessis confirmed a good crop in the Orange River too. “We could well pack in access of 20m cartons this year,” he says. “The early South African offer from this region will continue to be dominated by Prime, Flame Seedless and Thompson Seedless.”
These varieties are not ideal for Asian markets, so the early season will be quiet in terms of shipments to Asia. Until the first Crimson Seedless kick in, that is.
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