The World Bank's latest economic update on China finds China’s changing food consumption and increasing urbanisation will constrain sustainable food production as consumers shift towards a more “affluent” diet.
China’s total calorie intake per capita per day has increased markedly in the past two decades, from 2,163kcal in 1980 to 3,036kcal in 2009, mostly due to an increase in livestock-based food.
“Rapid economic growth has changed Chinese diets – amount, quality and composition – and will continue to change them for awhile,” stated the report, released June 2014. “As many more consumers shift their diets from crop- to livestock-based products and away from basic staples.”
The reports raised concerns about constraints to sustainable food production due to urbanisation and found food prices in China are likely to rise, citing factors such as political tension in Ukraine affected exports and crop yields suffering due to adverse weather effects brought on by El Nino.
In the long-term, however, domestic production of fruit and vegetables are projected to grow, with vegetable production expanding from 308m tonnes in 2012 to 372m tonnes in 2030. Likewise, fruit production will grow from 162m tonnes to 219m tonnes in the same period.
According to the report, China will remain a major exporter of fruit and vegetables, including apples, pears and citrus. In terms of imported fruit, China’s imports of fruit, mainly tropical will initially increase from 4m tonnes in 2012 to 4.3m tonnes in 2020, before dropping to 3.7m tonnes in 2030.
China’s economic growth is expected to gradually slow, from 7.6 per cent in 2014 to 7.5 per cent in 2015, down from 7.7. per cent in 2012 and 2013.
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