Rabobank report forecasts trade to rebound next season with weather-affected countries showing signs of recovery
Weather events have plunged global grape exports to their lowest levels in four years according to a new report from Rabobank.
However, the agribusiness banking specialist’s Table Grape Update 2024 does provide some optimism for the category, noting trade is expected to rebound next season with most weather-affected countries showing signs of recovery.
“Last season, global table grape exports reached 4.2 m tonnes, the lowest export amount in four seasons,” the report said. “This decline was mainly due to weather events in Europe and the Americas – and higher exports from Chile, China, and other major producers couldn’t offset this.”
According to the report, the share of exports from the Americas has declined from 45 per cent to 36 per cent over the past ten seasons. In the US, imports surpassed domestic production for the first time in 2023/24 following a down year for US growers in the wake of Storm Hilary.
“Europe has experienced a similar decline, facing challenges such as more extreme weather, margin pressure, challenging regulations, and a stagnant European market,” it said.
In contrast, China and India have become more significant in global table grape trade, transitioning from net importers to net exporters. Their joint export volumes increased by 183 per cent over ten seasons, accounting for 19 per cent of global exports in 2023/24.
Looking ahead, there is some expectation that global trade will recover with most weather-affected countries showing signs of recovery in production for the 2024/25 season (12 months to 31 May 2024 for the Northern Hemisphere and 30 September Southern Hemisphere).
“In addition, orchard renovations with new proprietary varieties are anticipated in most countries, resulting in increased exports in the coming years,” the report said.
However, the report noted as the market share of these varieties has grown the associated premium has declined at a retail level.
